Falkirk FC vs. Celtic FC: Both Teams to Score
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 70¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
1 arb excluded
$3.0K
$315.11
49.3¢ → 69.5¢
+41% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 52¢ | $1.1K | $1.5K | +$322.06 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Yesavg 70.3¢ | $639.07 | $1.1K | +$412.15 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 12.5¢ | $176.88 | $735.83 | +$558.95 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 70.3¢ | $462.2 | $315.39 | -$146.8 | |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 38.3¢ | $177.25 | $251.92 | +$74.67 | 50% 33839-33425 (67264) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Yesavg 46.6¢ | $268.73 | $184.45 | -$84.29 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $60 | $61.5 | +$1.5 | 58% 10657-7637 (18294) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $12.73 | $18.41 | +$0.45 | 57% 29226-21613 (50839) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 15.5¢ | $1.38 | $1.69 | +$0.32 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 12¢ | $0.68 | $1.08 | +$0.4 | 49% 13013-13570 (26583) |
Invested
$1,138.67
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$322.06
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
Invested
$639.07
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$412.15
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
Both legs:
Invested
$177.25
Value
$251.92
PnL
+$74.67
Record
50%
33839-33425 (67264)
Invested
$268.73
Value
$184.45
PnL
-$84.29
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$60
Value
$61.5
PnL
+$1.5
Record
58%
10657-7637 (18294)
Invested
$12.73
Value
$18.41
PnL
+$0.45
Record
57%
29226-21613 (50839)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.38
Value
$1.69
PnL
+$0.32
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
Invested
$0.68
Value
$1.08
PnL
+$0.4
Record
49%
13013-13570 (26583)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.