Dundee FC vs. Kilmarnock FC: O/U 3.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 85¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
-$98.3
91.4¢ → 85¢
-7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 92.8¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$104.98 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Overavg 16.9¢ | $134.48 | $117.84 | -$16.64 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 83.6¢ | $59.57 | $62.33 | +$2.76 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 16.9¢ | $74.91 | $55.51 | -$19.4 | |
 poshposh | Underavg 80¢ | $120 | $115.5 | -$4.5 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100 | Overavg 35¢ | $70 | $76 | +$6 | 54% 4810-4044 (8854) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 6.4¢ | $64.97 | $66.43 | +$1.46 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 35.7¢ | $61.66 | $57 | +$3.76 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 64¢ | $1.44 | $1.4 | -$0.04 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
Invested
$1,255.76
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$104.98
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$134.48
Value
$117.84
PnL
-$16.64
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Both legs:
poshposhInvested
$120
Value
$115.5
PnL
-$4.5
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
Invested
$70
Value
$76
PnL
+$6
Record
54%
4810-4044 (8854)
Invested
$64.97
Value
$66.43
PnL
+$1.46
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$61.66
Value
$57
PnL
+$3.76
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.44
Value
$1.4
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.