Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (64%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dundee FC vs. Kilmarnock FC: O/U 2.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 37¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 28

Over64¢Under36¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

$156.81

Smart Money Entry

43.1¢ → 36.5¢

-15% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Over 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over64%

Under37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares11,036

Combined PnL+$192.19

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares4,292

Combined PnL-$35.37

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	Underavg 42.5¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$209.89	53% 1104-975 (2079)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 57.9¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$186.8	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.9¢	$1.9K	$1.5K	-$337
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.3¢	$939.88	$1.1K	+$150.21
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Overavg 57¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$30	47% 2415-2698 (5113)
OM omnibus-076daa	Overavg 56¢	$383.43	$383.43	-$0	49% 18625-19055 (37680)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Overavg 57¢	$342	$336	-$6	54% 4810-4044 (8854)
FO fooooolCTR	Underavg 63.4¢	$108.39	$109.44	+$1.05	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 60¢	$90	$71.25	-$18.75	60% 9402-6388 (15790)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 36¢	$3.83	$4.46	+$0.63	53% 3098-2756 (5854)

rabbitfoot1CTR

Under

Invested

$4,558.51

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$209.89

Record

53%

1104-975 (2079)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,812.75

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$186.8

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

Both legs:

Over$1,872.8757.9¢-$337

Under$939.8845.3¢+$150.21

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Over

Invested

$1,710

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$30

Record

47%

2415-2698 (5113)

omnibus-076daa

Over

Invested

$383.43

Value

$383.43

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

18625-19055 (37680)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Over

Invested

$342

Value

$336

PnL

-$6

Record

54%

4810-4044 (8854)

fooooolCTR

Under

Invested

$108.39

Value

$109.44

PnL

+$1.05

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$90

Value

$71.25

PnL

-$18.75

Record

60%

9402-6388 (15790)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$3.83

Value

$4.46

PnL

+$0.63

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 37%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Over 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.