Will Dundee FC win on 2026-10-28?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 73¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28

Yes73¢No27¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$67.46

Smart Money Entry

70.4¢ → 72.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes73%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$765.39

Total Shares872

Combined PnL-$34.7

No5 traders

Total Value$443.4

Total Shares875

Combined PnL-$32.76

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 74.4¢	$609.57	$555.32	-$54.26	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 49.7¢	$196.76	$180.68	+$3.04	58% 40796-29505 (70301)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 49.9¢	$163.77	$162.51	-$1.26	53% 15742-13912 (29654)
FO foooool	Yesavg 55.5¢	$124.47	$142.84	+$18.37	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 73¢	$123.22	$127.48	+$4.26	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 73¢	$82.13	$83.81	+$1.69
└ No leg	Noavg 24¢	$41.1	$43.66	+$2.57
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 73.1¢	$62.07	$63.3	+$1.22	54% 6053-5127 (11180)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$78	$41.25	-$36.75	60% 9402-6388 (15790)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$41	$40.59	-$0.41	58% 28127-20735 (48862)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 21.8¢	$15.74	$18.37	+$2.63	50% 32798-32351 (65149)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 73¢	$3.97	$3.93	-$0.04	53% 3098-2756 (5854)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$609.57

Value

$555.32

PnL

-$54.26

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$196.76

Value

$180.68

PnL

+$3.04

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$163.77

Value

$162.51

PnL

-$1.26

Record

53%

15742-13912 (29654)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$124.47

Value

$142.84

PnL

+$18.37

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$123.22

Value

$127.48

PnL

+$4.26

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

Both legs:

Invested

$62.07

Value

$63.3

PnL

+$1.22

Record

54%

6053-5127 (11180)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$78

Value

$41.25

PnL

-$36.75

Record

60%

9402-6388 (15790)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$41

Value

$40.59

PnL

-$0.41

Record

58%

28127-20735 (48862)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$15.74

Value

$18.37

PnL

+$2.63

Record

50%

32798-32351 (65149)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.97

Value

$3.93

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.