Celtic FC vs. Dundee United FC: O/U 4.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 71¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 28

Over71¢Under29¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$210.37

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 70.5¢

+19% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over71%

Under30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares5,332

Combined PnL+$751.97

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares7,051

Combined PnL-$541.6

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJr	Overavg 59¢	$2.7K	$3.3K	+$652.5	53% 1206-1085 (2291)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 40.5¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$396.99	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
RN1	Overavg 60¢	$462.03	$544.62	+$82.59	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 24.9¢	$411.99	$488.33	+$76.34	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Underavg 41¢	$636.47	$411.38	-$225.09	49% 18625-19055 (37680)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 19¢	$185.91	$233.1	+$47.19	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
└ Under leg	Underavg 19¢	$106.4	$123.2	+$16.8
└ Over leg	Overavg 56.4¢	$79.51	$109.9	+$30.39
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 66.3¢	$129.24	$68.39	+$4.15	58% 40796-29505 (70301)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 59.5¢	$37.32	$53.98	+$16.66	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 65¢	$9.75	$9.98	+$0.23	50% 12135-12341 (24476)

JohnLKellyJr

Over

Invested

$2,654.99

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$652.5

Record

53%

1206-1085 (2291)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$1,554.73

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$396.99

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

RN1

Over

Invested

$462.03

Value

$544.62

PnL

+$82.59

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$411.99

Value

$488.33

PnL

+$76.34

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Under

Invested

$636.47

Value

$411.38

PnL

-$225.09

Record

49%

18625-19055 (37680)

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$185.91

Value

$233.1

PnL

+$47.19

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

Both legs:

Under$106.419¢+$16.8

Over$79.5156.4¢+$30.39

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$129.24

Value

$68.39

PnL

+$4.15

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$37.32

Value

$53.98

PnL

+$16.66

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$9.75

Value

$9.98

PnL

+$0.23

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.