Celtic FC vs. Dundee United FC: O/U 3.5
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (78%) · Over at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 78%
$7.0K
$203.99
77.3¢ → 100¢
+29% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 55.9¢ | $2.0K | $2.4K | +$439.9 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
SN SnakeBall | Overavg 86.7¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$65.66 | 50% 32798-32351 (65149) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Overavg 98.2¢ | $1.1K | $902.15 | -$220.16 | 49% 18625-19055 (37680) |
 RN1 | Overavg 84.6¢ | $777.71 | $747.53 | -$30.18 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
FO fooooolCTR | Underavg 8.8¢ | $288.42 | $508.34 | +$219.91 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 18.9¢ | $516.88 | $396.07 | -$120.81 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
LU LuckyLoo | Overavg 88.2¢ | $132.33 | $118.43 | -$13.91 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $55 | $46.34 | -$6.72 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 95.2¢ | $39.7 | $41.32 | +$1.61 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
Invested
$1,984.25
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$439.9
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$1,913.41
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$65.66
Record
50%
32798-32351 (65149)
Invested
$1,122.31
Value
$902.15
PnL
-$220.16
Record
49%
18625-19055 (37680)
RN1Invested
$777.71
Value
$747.53
PnL
-$30.18
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$288.42
Value
$508.34
PnL
+$219.91
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Invested
$516.88
Value
$396.07
PnL
-$120.81
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Invested
$132.33
Value
$118.43
PnL
-$13.91
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$55
Value
$46.34
PnL
-$6.72
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$39.7
Value
$41.32
PnL
+$1.61
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.