Celtic FC vs. Dundee United FC: O/U 1.5

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$45.77

Smart Money Entry

90¢ → 100¢

+11% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,062

Combined PnL-$45.92

Under1 trader

Total Value$1.18

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$0.15

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 90¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$44.7	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 10¢	$252.26	$274.95	+$22.69	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
└ Under leg	Underavg 10¢	$147.32	$169.42	+$22.1
└ Over leg	Overavg 88¢	$104.94	$105.54	+$0.6
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 90¢	$73.35	$72.13	-$1.22	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$1.03	$1.18	+$0.15	53% 3098-2756 (5854)

RN1

Over

Invested

$2,682

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$44.7

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$252.26

Value

$274.95

PnL

+$22.69

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

Both legs:

Under$147.3210¢+$22.1

Over$104.9488¢+$0.6

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$73.35

Value

$72.13

PnL

-$1.22

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.03

Value

$1.18

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.