Spread: Celtic FC (-3.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Dundee United FC (60%) · Dundee United FC at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Dundee United FC
5
Dundee United FC 60%
$2.8K
$210.83
80.6¢ → 99.2¢
+23% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralDundee United FC at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Dundee United FCavg 79.9¢ | $2.1K | $2.3K | +$230.54 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
FO foooool | Dundee United FCavg 83.7¢ | $464.78 | $444.15 | -$20.63 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Dundee United FCavg 79¢ | $50.08 | $50.6 | +$0.52 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Celtic FCavg 18¢ | $14.22 | $15.8 | +$1.58 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Celtic FCavg 22¢ | $13.05 | $11.86 | -$1.19 | 50% 32798-32351 (65149) |
Invested
$2,057.32
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$230.54
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Invested
$464.78
Value
$444.15
PnL
-$20.63
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$50.08
Value
$50.6
PnL
+$0.52
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
Invested
$14.22
Value
$15.8
PnL
+$1.58
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
Invested
$13.05
Value
$11.86
PnL
-$1.19
Record
50%
32798-32351 (65149)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.