Will Dundee United FC win on 2026-10-28?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 93¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$2.3K
-$127.35
92.9¢ → 92.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Cannae | Noavg 93¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$129.37 | 53% 15741-13910 (29651) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 93¢ | $409.2 | $407 | -$2.2 | 59% 44606-31003 (75609) |
KY Kyn008CTR | Yesavg 7¢ | $170.16 | $182.31 | +$12.15 | 50% 218-221 (439) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 90.9¢ | $104.5 | $98.9 | -$5.6 | 58% 40752-29469 (70221) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $40.95 | $38.7 | -$2.25 | 58% 28121-20725 (48846) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $14.22 | $14.14 | -$0.08 | 49% 18595-19019 (37614) |
Invested
$1,690.53
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$129.37
Record
53%
15741-13910 (29651)
Invested
$409.2
Value
$407
PnL
-$2.2
Record
59%
44606-31003 (75609)
Invested
$170.16
Value
$182.31
PnL
+$12.15
Record
50%
218-221 (439)
VeryLucky888Invested
$104.5
Value
$98.9
PnL
-$5.6
Record
58%
40752-29469 (70221)
Invested
$40.95
Value
$38.7
PnL
-$2.25
Record
58%
28121-20725 (48846)
Invested
$14.22
Value
$14.14
PnL
-$0.08
Record
49%
18595-19019 (37614)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.