Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 10 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Celtic FC win on 2026-10-28?

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 49¢ · $23K held · ended Oct 28

Yes52¢No48¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

55.4¢ → 48.5¢

-13% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$11.3K

Total Shares21,186

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares19,240

Combined PnL-$101.14

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 60.5¢	$5.3K	$4.3K	-$999.6	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
└ No leg	Noavg 60.5¢	$4.1K	$3.0K	$-1.1K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51.3¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$109.91
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 60.6¢	$5.2K	$4.1K	$-1.0K	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 51.8¢	$4.3K	$3.7K	-$614.87	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
0X 0x46072f22bC5624f7Ff43489d570FDc7e745Ad542-1774720903403	Yesavg 29.5¢	$3.0K	$2.8K	-$199.61	56% 84-65 (149)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 77.1¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$51.78	65% 1668-897 (2565)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 42.9¢	$924.55	$1.4K	+$510.04	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 70.6¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$36.29	50% 32798-32351 (65149)
JohnLKellyJr	Yesavg 33¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$16.66	53% 1206-1085 (2291)
SU sugar-super	Yesavg 36¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$30	53% 371-335 (706)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Noavg 64¢	$448	$444.5	-$3.5	51% 1291-1227 (2518)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Noavg 57.3¢	$363.79	$324.67	-$39.12	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
└ No leg	Noavg 57.3¢	$194.7	$246.21	+$51.51
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59.3¢	$169.09	$78.46	-$90.63
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 50.7¢	$69.31	$85.47	+$16.16	54% 6053-5127 (11180)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 24.1¢	$36.39	$67.39	+$31	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$64.22	$61.41	-$2.81	53% 15742-13912 (29654)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$19.19	$19.2	-$1.3	58% 28127-20735 (48862)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Noavg 54¢	$10.79	$10.09	-$0.7	59% 30106-20832 (50938)
RL RLWG<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$1.65	$1.68	+$0.03	50% 7686-7698 (15384)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$5,270.96

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$999.6

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

Both legs:

No$4,065.9160.5¢$-1.1K

Yes$1,205.0551.3¢+$109.91

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$5,174.18

Value

$4.1K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$4,311.88

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$614.87

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

0x46072f22bC5624f7Ff43489d570FDc7e745Ad542-1774720903403

Yes

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$199.61

Record

56%

84-65 (149)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$2,096.16

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$51.78

Record

65%

1668-897 (2565)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$924.55

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$510.04

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$1,347.25

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$36.29

Record

50%

32798-32351 (65149)

JohnLKellyJr

Yes

Invested

$1,099.89

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$16.66

Record

53%

1206-1085 (2291)

sugar-super

Yes

Invested

$1,080

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$30

Record

53%

371-335 (706)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Invested

$448

Value

$444.5

PnL

-$3.5

Record

51%

1291-1227 (2518)

fooooolARB<$100

Invested

$363.79

Value

$324.67

PnL

-$39.12

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

Both legs:

No$194.757.3¢+$51.51

Yes$169.0959.3¢-$90.63

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$69.31

Value

$85.47

PnL

+$16.16

Record

54%

6053-5127 (11180)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$36.39

Value

$67.39

PnL

+$31

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$64.22

Value

$61.41

PnL

-$2.81

Record

53%

15742-13912 (29654)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$19.19

Value

$19.2

PnL

-$1.3

Record

58%

28127-20735 (48862)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Invested

$10.79

Value

$10.09

PnL

-$0.7

Record

59%

30106-20832 (50938)

RLWG<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.68

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

7686-7698 (15384)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 49%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.