Aberdeen FC vs. Falkirk FC: O/U 3.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 79¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
3
Under 67%
1 arb excluded
$3.2K
$92.78
82.5¢ → 79¢
-4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Underavg 93.1¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$137.88 | 59% 44657-31054 (75711) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 93.1¢ | $1.3K | $1.1K | -$194.09 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 18¢ | $334.98 | $391.19 | +$56.21 | |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 71.3¢ | $849.92 | $1.0K | +$196.46 | 50% 24390-24013 (48403) |
 RN1 | Underavg 98.7¢ | $769.86 | $616.2 | -$153.66 | 54% 55758-47850 (103608) |
FO fooooolCTR | Overavg 10.6¢ | $50.78 | $100.76 | +$49.98 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
Invested
$1,612.95
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$137.88
Record
59%
44657-31054 (75711)
Both legs:
Invested
$849.92
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$196.46
Record
50%
24390-24013 (48403)
RN1Invested
$769.86
Value
$616.2
PnL
-$153.66
Record
54%
55758-47850 (103608)
Invested
$50.78
Value
$100.76
PnL
+$49.98
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.