Aberdeen FC vs. Falkirk FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 100¢ · $234 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 100%
$234.36
-$35.15
56.1¢ → 100¢
+78% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $74.93 | $74.06 | -$0.87 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $53.04 | $57.76 | +$4.72 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $47.37 | $51.58 | +$4.21 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Underavg 93¢ | $93 | $49 | -$44 | 49% 18625-19055 (37680) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 29¢ | $1.16 | $1.96 | +$0.8 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
Invested
$74.93
Value
$74.06
PnL
-$0.87
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
RN1<$100Invested
$53.04
Value
$57.76
PnL
+$4.72
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
poshposh<$100Invested
$47.37
Value
$51.58
PnL
+$4.21
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
Invested
$93
Value
$49
PnL
-$44
Record
49%
18625-19055 (37680)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.16
Value
$1.96
PnL
+$0.8
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.