Will Falkirk FC win on 2026-10-28?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 83¢ · $215 held · ended Oct 28

Yes18¢No82¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$214.98

Combined PnL

$8.32

Smart Money Entry

79.5¢ → 82.5¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$193.07

Total Shares229

Combined PnL+$10.94

Yes4 traders

Total Value$21.91

Total Shares116

Combined PnL-$2.62

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 79.5¢	$124.74	$134.91	+$10.17	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 79.4¢	$57.39	$58.16	+$0.77	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$15.12	$12.6	-$2.52	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$6.51	$6.2	-$0.31	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$2.2	$2.45	+$0.25	54% 6053-5127 (11180)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$0.7	$0.66	-$0.04	58% 28127-20735 (48862)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$124.74

Value

$134.91

PnL

+$10.17

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

foooool<$100

Invested

$57.39

Value

$58.16

PnL

+$0.77

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.12

Value

$12.6

PnL

-$2.52

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.51

Value

$6.2

PnL

-$0.31

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.25

Record

54%

6053-5127 (11180)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.7

Value

$0.66

PnL

-$0.04

Record

58%

28127-20735 (48862)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.