Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-11-01?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 6.5¢ · $168 held · ended Nov 1

Yes7¢No93¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$167.84

Combined PnL

-$205.12

Smart Money Entry

29.3¢ → 6.5¢

-78% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$166.07

Total Shares1,267

Combined PnL-$205.18

No1 trader

Total Value$1.77

Total Shares3

Combined PnL+$0.06

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Yesavg 36¢	$240.17	$63.45	-$176.72	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$74.24	$62.15	-$12.09	65% 1758-962 (2720)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.4¢	$51.25	$39.23	-$12.02	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 57¢	$1.71	$1.77	+$0.06	53% 5642-5057 (10699)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$5.59	$1.24	-$4.35	58% 10670-7658 (18328)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$240.17

Value

$63.45

PnL

-$176.72

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.24

Value

$62.15

PnL

-$12.09

Record

65%

1758-962 (2720)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.25

Value

$39.23

PnL

-$12.02

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$1.71

Value

$1.77

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.59

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$4.35

Record

58%

10670-7658 (18328)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.8%

6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1174.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

1274.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.