Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 26?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Sep 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$1.7K
$171.64
86.4¢ → 99.6¢
+15% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f | Noavg 84.7¢ | $593.96 | $700.39 | +$106.39 | 69% 143-64 (207) |
 yen4u | Noavg 99.9¢ | $456.55 | $456.09 | +$0 | 85% 783-133 (916) |
 clazzy1 | Noavg 79.9¢ | $324.53 | $405.9 | +$81.38 | 62% 385-240 (625) |
0X 0x26b166604677eaef5f2e81b716f539ed2857cc81CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $50 | $48 | -$48.5 | 54% 287-245 (532) |
0X 0x6528e4dfAE95B1a096C3ccE287Fb44C96C802006-1790896469009<$100 | Noavg 19¢ | $7.6 | $39.96 | +$32.36 | 16% 5-26 (31) |
 SmallFishInWhaleStomach<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $20.57 | $20.59 | +$0.01 | 82% 120-26 (146) |
Invested
$593.96
Value
$700.39
PnL
+$106.39
Record
69%
143-64 (207)
yen4uInvested
$456.55
Value
$456.09
PnL
+$0
Record
85%
783-133 (916)
clazzy1Invested
$324.53
Value
$405.9
PnL
+$81.38
Record
62%
385-240 (625)
Invested
$50
Value
$48
PnL
-$48.5
Record
54%
287-245 (532)
Invested
$7.6
Value
$39.96
PnL
+$32.36
Record
16%
5-26 (31)
SmallFishInWhaleStomach<$100Invested
$20.57
Value
$20.59
PnL
+$0.01
Record
82%
120-26 (146)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.