Will RFK Akhmat Groznyi win on 2026-10-31?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$7.7K
-$39.15
96¢ → 99.5¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO Momo63 | Noavg 96¢ | $7.6K | $7.5K | -$39.5 | 93% 855-61 (916) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 94.8¢ | $173.84 | $175.13 | +$1.28 | 50% 33398-32968 (66366) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $8.67 | $8.48 | -$0.18 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $1.2 | $0.45 | -$0.75 | 58% 41929-30449 (72378) |
Invested
$7,583.88
Value
$7.5K
PnL
-$39.5
Record
93%
855-61 (916)
Invested
$173.84
Value
$175.13
PnL
+$1.28
Record
50%
33398-32968 (66366)
Invested
$8.67
Value
$8.48
PnL
-$0.18
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$1.2
Value
$0.45
PnL
-$0.75
Record
58%
41929-30449 (72378)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.