Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (64%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will FK Dinamo Moskva win on 2026-10-31?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 36¢ · $844 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$844.4
$22.12
35¢ → 36¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391CTR | Noavg 35¢ | $780.8 | $803.11 | +$22.31 | 51% 1683-1646 (3329) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $18.65 | $18.65 | +$0.53 | 58% 28689-21179 (49868) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $13.29 | $12.24 | -$0.87 | 38% 417-667 (1084) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 34.5¢ | $12.62 | $7.51 | +$0.2 | 58% 41902-30424 (72326) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $2.97 | $2.89 | -$0.04 | 53% 4616-4152 (8768) |
us391CTRInvested
$780.8
Value
$803.11
PnL
+$22.31
Record
51%
1683-1646 (3329)
Invested
$18.65
Value
$18.65
PnL
+$0.53
Record
58%
28689-21179 (49868)
Invested
$13.29
Value
$12.24
PnL
-$0.87
Record
38%
417-667 (1084)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$12.62
Value
$7.51
PnL
+$0.2
Record
58%
41902-30424 (72326)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.97
Value
$2.89
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
4616-4152 (8768)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.