Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold FC Botoşani, while the market favors Universitatea Craiova CS (50%). 0 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Universitatea Craiova CS (-1.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold FC Botoşani (75%) · FC Botoşani at 50¢ · $632 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
FC Botoşani
4
FC Botoşani 75%
$632.46
$17.69
47.3¢ → 50¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralFC Botoşani at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Universitatea Craiova CS 50%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | FC Botoşaniavg 47.6¢ | $544.07 | $571.5 | +$27.43 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Universitatea Craiova CSavg 47¢ | $53.56 | $39.9 | -$13.66 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
 HRTrading<$100 | FC Botoşaniavg 29.5¢ | $7.08 | $12 | +$4.92 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | FC Botoşaniavg 52¢ | $9.42 | $9.06 | -$1 | 55% 1781-1468 (3249) |
Invested
$544.07
Value
$571.5
PnL
+$27.43
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$53.56
Value
$39.9
PnL
-$13.66
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.08
Value
$12
PnL
+$4.92
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
Invested
$9.42
Value
$9.06
PnL
-$1
Record
55%
1781-1468 (3249)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.