Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 3 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will FC Petrolul Ploieşti win on 2026-10-31?

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (27%) · Yes at 46¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Yes46¢No54¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 27%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$23.36

Smart Money Entry

42¢ → 45.5¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$587.56

Total Shares1,364

Combined PnL+$14.83

No8 traders

Total Value$660.36

Total Shares1,090

Combined PnL+$8.53

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 41.9¢	$542.46	$556.85	+$14.39	49% 12659-13060 (25719)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 42.5¢	$250.92	$254.62	+$3.7	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42.5¢	$176.39	$178.46	+$2.08
└ No leg	Noavg 55.8¢	$74.53	$76.15	+$1.62
CA Cannae	Noavg 57¢	$211.93	$210.61	-$1.33	53% 15968-14143 (30111)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Yesavg 38.2¢	$185.88	$209.74	+$23.86	49% 8037-8396 (16433)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38.2¢	$127.74	$148.91	+$21.17
└ No leg	Noavg 53¢	$58.15	$60.84	+$2.69
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 52.6¢	$174.46	$189.14	+$14.68	50% 25153-24879 (50032)
us391	Noavg 54¢	$135	$138.75	+$3.75	51% 1684-1648 (3332)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 57.4¢	$94.76	$91.58	-$6.48	58% 28754-21204 (49958)
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Yesavg 43.8¢	$21.9	$22.25	+$0.35	63% 1118-644 (1762)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 52.2¢	$15.7	$16.71	+$1	54% 6294-5328 (11622)
RN1<$100	Noavg 74¢	$11.56	$8.67	-$2.89	54% 56642-48828 (105470)
CC ccllarCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$8.36	$8.46	+$0.1	46% 432-500 (932)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Noavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.78	-$0.07	85% 5348-927 (6275)
AR ARocky33<$100	Noavg 59¢	$2.28	$2.14	-$0.14	76% 4055-1285 (5340)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$542.46

Value

$556.85

PnL

+$14.39

Record

49%

12659-13060 (25719)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$250.92

Value

$254.62

PnL

+$3.7

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

Both legs:

Yes$176.3942.5¢+$2.08

No$74.5355.8¢+$1.62

Cannae

Invested

$211.93

Value

$210.61

PnL

-$1.33

Record

53%

15968-14143 (30111)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$185.88

Value

$209.74

PnL

+$23.86

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

Both legs:

Yes$127.7438.2¢+$21.17

No$58.1553¢+$2.69

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$174.46

Value

$189.14

PnL

+$14.68

Record

50%

25153-24879 (50032)

us391

Invested

$135

Value

$138.75

PnL

+$3.75

Record

51%

1684-1648 (3332)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$94.76

Value

$91.58

PnL

-$6.48

Record

58%

28754-21204 (49958)

Rocko33CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.9

Value

$22.25

PnL

+$0.35

Record

63%

1118-644 (1762)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$15.7

Value

$16.71

PnL

+$1

Record

54%

6294-5328 (11622)

RN1<$100

Invested

$11.56

Value

$8.67

PnL

-$2.89

Record

54%

56642-48828 (105470)

ccllarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.36

Value

$8.46

PnL

+$0.1

Record

46%

432-500 (932)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.78

PnL

-$0.07

Record

85%

5348-927 (6275)

ARocky33<$100

Invested

$2.28

Value

$2.14

PnL

-$0.14

Record

76%

4055-1285 (5340)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 46%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.