Spread: FC Rapid 1923 (-1.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold FC Rapid 1923 (33%) · FC Rapid 1923 at 96¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30

FC Rapid 192396¢FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc4¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FC Rapid 1923

Consensus Traders

FC Rapid 1923 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$150.24

Smart Money Entry

31.9¢ → 95.5¢

+199% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralFC Rapid 1923 at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FC Rapid 1923

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FC Rapid 192396%

FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FC Rapid 19233 traders

Total Value$332.17

Total Shares649

Combined PnL+$122.56

FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc6 traders

Total Value$216.17

Total Shares335

Combined PnL+$27.69

FC Rapid 1923 — 33%FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciucavg 57¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$162	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
└ FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc leg	FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciucavg 57¢	$746.02	$752.57	+$6.54
└ FC Rapid 1923 leg	FC Rapid 1923avg 32¢	$476.04	$631.49	+$155.46
0X 0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004	FC Rapid 1923avg 31¢	$186	$293.99	+$108	57% 152-117 (269)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciucavg 59¢	$68.24	$101.77	+$33.53	59% 45382-31736 (77118)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciucavg 46.7¢	$32.33	$35.3	+$2.97	49% 19009-19414 (38423)
HRTradingCTR<$100	FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciucavg 69.9¢	$43.34	$32.91	-$10.43	52% 4016-3659 (7675)
RN1CTR<$100	FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciucavg 52¢	$28.17	$27.63	-$0.54	54% 56331-48482 (104813)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	FC Rapid 1923avg 9¢	$4.84	$25.31	+$20.47	38% 3213-5245 (8458)
RO Rocky31<$100	FC Rapid 1923avg 89¢	$18.78	$12.87	-$5.91	73% 1547-559 (2106)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciucavg 47¢	$8.87	$9.62	+$0.75	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciucavg 43¢	$7.54	$8.94	+$1.4	49% 12488-12848 (25336)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc

Invested

$1,222.06

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$162

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

Both legs:

FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc$746.0257¢+$6.54

FC Rapid 1923$476.0432¢+$155.46

0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004

FC Rapid 1923

Invested

$186

Value

$293.99

PnL

+$108

Record

57%

152-117 (269)

UpTheBluesCTR

FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc

Invested

$68.24

Value

$101.77

PnL

+$33.53

Record

59%

45382-31736 (77118)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc

Invested

$32.33

Value

$35.3

PnL

+$2.97

Record

49%

19009-19414 (38423)

HRTradingCTR<$100

FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc

Invested

$43.34

Value

$32.91

PnL

-$10.43

Record

52%

4016-3659 (7675)

RN1CTR<$100

FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc

Invested

$28.17

Value

$27.63

PnL

-$0.54

Record

54%

56331-48482 (104813)

topdogbigboi<$100

FC Rapid 1923

Invested

$4.84

Value

$25.31

PnL

+$20.47

Record

38%

3213-5245 (8458)

Rocky31<$100

FC Rapid 1923

Invested

$18.78

Value

$12.87

PnL

-$5.91

Record

73%

1547-559 (2106)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc

Invested

$8.87

Value

$9.62

PnL

+$0.75

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc

Invested

$7.54

Value

$8.94

PnL

+$1.4

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

Research grade

NeutralFC Rapid 1923 at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

FC Rapid 1923

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FC Rapid 1923 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.