Will FC Rapid 1923 win on 2026-10-30?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 78¢ · $636 held · ends Oct 30

Yes78¢No22¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$636.3

Combined PnL

-$3.69

Smart Money Entry

78¢ → 78¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes78%

No22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$585.85

Total Shares751

Combined PnL+$0

No2 traders

Total Value$50.45

Total Shares229

Combined PnL-$3.69

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA Cannae	Yesavg 78¢	$478.21	$478.21	+$0	53% 15882-14070 (29952)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Yesavg 78¢	$107.64	$107.64	+$0	58% 28421-20980 (49401)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 23.6¢	$53.64	$49.9	-$3.74	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$0.5	$0.55	+$0.05	54% 4856-4082 (8938)

Cannae

Yes

Invested

$478.21

Value

$478.21

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

15882-14070 (29952)

LeLynxMalynx

Yes

Invested

$107.64

Value

$107.64

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$53.64

Value

$49.9

PnL

-$3.74

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.55

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

4856-4082 (8938)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.