Will FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc win on 2026-10-30?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (30%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 30%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$119.62

Smart Money Entry

93¢ → 100¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,040

Combined PnL-$531.92

Yes7 traders

Total Value$777.47

Total Shares4,466

Combined PnL+$412.3

No — 30%Yes — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 93¢	$1.3K	$694.04	-$571.18	54% 56331-48482 (104813)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 93¢	$596.98	$636.62	+$39.64	59% 45382-31736 (77118)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 6.8¢	$48.67	$350.31	+$301.63	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 7.3¢	$251.96	$275.25	+$23.29	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$11.38	$79.68	+$68.3	53% 15882-14070 (29952)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$7	$49	-$1	38% 3213-5245 (8458)
AR ARocky33<$100	Noavg 94¢	$35.48	$35.1	-$0.38	76% 4014-1262 (5276)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$2.27	$15.89	+$13.62	52% 4016-3659 (7675)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$2.01	$4.9	+$4.36	58% 41515-30150 (71665)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$0.35	$2.45	+$2.1	54% 6195-5245 (11440)

RN1

Invested

$1,265.22

Value

$694.04

PnL

-$571.18

Record

54%

56331-48482 (104813)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$596.98

Value

$636.62

PnL

+$39.64

Record

59%

45382-31736 (77118)

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$48.67

Value

$350.31

PnL

+$301.63

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$251.96

Value

$275.25

PnL

+$23.29

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.38

Value

$79.68

PnL

+$68.3

Record

53%

15882-14070 (29952)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$49

PnL

-$1

Record

38%

3213-5245 (8458)

ARocky33<$100

Invested

$35.48

Value

$35.1

PnL

-$0.38

Record

76%

4014-1262 (5276)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.27

Value

$15.89

PnL

+$13.62

Record

52%

4016-3659 (7675)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.01

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$4.36

Record

58%

41515-30150 (71665)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$2.1

Record

54%

6195-5245 (11440)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.