Will FC Rapid 1923 vs. FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc end in a draw?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 100¢ · $237 held · ended Oct 30

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$237.48

Combined PnL

$2.7

Smart Money Entry

84.6¢ → 99.5¢

+18% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$215.78

Total Shares242

Combined PnL-$0.35

Yes2 traders

Total Value$21.7

Total Shares124

Combined PnL+$3.05

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 84.7¢	$72.24	$70.37	-$1.87	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 84¢	$67.41	$66.21	-$1.2	58% 41515-30150 (71665)
RN1<$100	Noavg 84.7¢	$32.55	$36.09	+$3.54	54% 56331-48482 (104813)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 87¢	$26.72	$26.56	-$0.15	59% 9948-6921 (16869)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$10.32	$11.29	+$0.97	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$8.33	$10.41	+$2.08	59% 45382-31736 (77118)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 77.5¢	$8	$9.68	-$0.07	38% 3213-5245 (8458)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 91¢	$4.55	$4.55	+$0	54% 6195-5245 (11440)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 91¢	$2.91	$2.32	-$0.58	52% 4016-3659 (7675)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$72.24

Value

$70.37

PnL

-$1.87

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$67.41

Value

$66.21

PnL

-$1.2

Record

58%

41515-30150 (71665)

RN1<$100

Invested

$32.55

Value

$36.09

PnL

+$3.54

Record

54%

56331-48482 (104813)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$26.72

Value

$26.56

PnL

-$0.15

Record

59%

9948-6921 (16869)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.32

Value

$11.29

PnL

+$0.97

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.33

Value

$10.41

PnL

+$2.08

Record

59%

45382-31736 (77118)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

Value

$9.68

PnL

-$0.07

Record

38%

3213-5245 (8458)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$4.55

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

6195-5245 (11440)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$2.91

Value

$2.32

PnL

-$0.58

Record

52%

4016-3659 (7675)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.