Will FC Corvinul 1921 Hunedoara win on 2026-10-31?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 100¢ · $637 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 29%
$636.64
$173.24
70.4¢ → 100¢
+42% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 50.2¢ | $168.81 | $336.03 | +$167.22 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
LU LuckyLoo | Yesavg 99¢ | $235.62 | $237.88 | +$2.26 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $53.58 | $60.16 | +$6.58 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $2.32 | $2.56 | +$0.24 | 53% 4646-4187 (8833) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 9¢ | $0.9 | $0.01 | -$0.9 | 49% 7982-8322 (16304) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $2.4 | $0 | -$2.4 | 59% 10191-7178 (17369) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $0 | +$0.23 | 54% 6286-5324 (11610) |
Invested
$168.81
Value
$336.03
PnL
+$167.22
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
Invested
$235.62
Value
$237.88
PnL
+$2.26
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
Invested
$53.58
Value
$60.16
PnL
+$6.58
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.32
Value
$2.56
PnL
+$0.24
Record
53%
4646-4187 (8833)
Invested
$0.9
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.9
Record
49%
7982-8322 (16304)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$2.4
Value
$0
PnL
-$2.4
Record
59%
10191-7178 (17369)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$0
PnL
+$0.23
Record
54%
6286-5324 (11610)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.