Will ASC Oțelul Galați win on 2026-11-01?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 96¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$3.0K
$196.35
71¢ → 95.5¢
+34% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 85.8¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$131.16 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 50¢ | $751.31 | $1.3K | +$65.03 | 50% 25648-25477 (51125) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $17.8 | $18.13 | -$0.99 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $10 | $11 | +$1 | 54% 6424-5410 (11834) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $4.05 | $4.68 | +$0.32 | 53% 16115-14278 (30393) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $1.22 | $1.07 | -$0.16 | 49% 13013-13570 (26583) |
Invested
$1,602.48
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$131.16
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
Invested
$751.31
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$65.03
Record
50%
25648-25477 (51125)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$17.8
Value
$18.13
PnL
-$0.99
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
Invested
$10
Value
$11
PnL
+$1
Record
54%
6424-5410 (11834)
Invested
$4.05
Value
$4.68
PnL
+$0.32
Record
53%
16115-14278 (30393)
Invested
$1.22
Value
$1.07
PnL
-$0.16
Record
49%
13013-13570 (26583)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.