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2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 100¢ · $926 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$926.46
$8.83
95.9¢ → 99.8¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
606h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
7 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH TheImpasse | Noavg 95.6¢ | $834.9 | $871.25 | +$36.36 | 22% 143-522 (665) |
HO Hourglass<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $49.85 | $49.9 | +$0.05 | 77% 8872-2635 (11507) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $4.8 | $2.4 | -$2.4 | 18% 523-2344 (2867) |
0X 0xd361529b833f79206cea905500ddb56574144ccdCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $22.34 | $2.19 | -$20.15 | — |
TY TyshaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $5.75 | $0.72 | -$5.03 | 73% 8251-3122 (11373) |
Invested
$834.9
Value
$871.25
PnL
+$36.36
Record
22%
143-522 (665)
Invested
$49.85
Value
$49.9
PnL
+$0.05
Record
77%
8872-2635 (11507)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$4.8
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$2.4
Record
18%
523-2344 (2867)
Invested
$22.34
Value
$2.19
PnL
-$20.15
Record
—
Invested
$5.75
Value
$0.72
PnL
-$5.03
Record
73%
8251-3122 (11373)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.