Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 91¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$4.0K
$667
77.6¢ → 91¢
+17% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 alanhutton | Noavg 77.3¢ | $231.27 | $2.5K | +$444.03 | 68% 333-157 (490) |
TR tradexplorer | Noavg 78¢ | $773.39 | $901.76 | +$138.28 | 60% 291-194 (485) |
BE Beyonddream | Noavg 78¢ | $471.82 | $550.46 | +$84.69 | 61% 205-130 (335) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.