Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 71¢ · $869 held · ends Dec 9

Yes71¢No29¢Ends Wed, Dec 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$868.86

Combined PnL

$140.38

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 71¢

+30% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No29%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$356.22

Total Shares502

Combined PnL+$149.91

No4 traders

Total Value$137.49

Total Shares474

Combined PnL-$9.53

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 59.4¢	$334.55	$230.15	-$4.51	14% 513-3102 (3615)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59.4¢	$136.79	$163.41	+$17.24
└ No leg	Noavg 41.9¢	$96.48	$66.75	-$21.75
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Yesavg 54.6¢	$288.62	$204.92	+$47.27	27% 7002-19130 (26132)
2B9SARB<$100	Noavg 45.6¢	$389.93	$145	+$22.63	18% 4430-20777 (25207)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.5¢	$41.49	$93.6	+$52.1
└ No leg	Noavg 45.6¢	$80.87	$51.4	-$29.47
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Yesavg 55.9¢	$893.42	$142	+$101.58	48% 1337-1437 (2774)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR	Noavg 28.5¢	$578.29	$90.92	+$1.55	51% 290-283 (573)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 37.4¢	$52.4	$40.6	-$11.8	49% 8980-9510 (18490)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$4.89	$5.67	+$0.78	44% 6591-8244 (14835)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$0.99	$3.5	+$2.51	75% 13065-4252 (17317)
LU luciebot<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$0.94	$3.34	+$2.4	31% 2678-6002 (8680)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$22.16	$1.63	-$4.72	77% 12520-3844 (16364)
JO JordanMooney<$100	Yesavg 8.8¢	$22.45	$0.82	+$0.87	36% 2034-3660 (5694)
PL plainfolderCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$0.37	$0.31	-$0.06	31% 3549-7933 (11482)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$334.55

Value

$230.15

PnL

-$4.51

Record

14%

513-3102 (3615)

Both legs:

Yes$136.7959.4¢+$17.24

No$96.4841.9¢-$21.75

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes

Invested

$288.62

Value

$204.92

PnL

+$47.27

Record

27%

7002-19130 (26132)

2B9SARB<$100

Invested

$389.93

Value

$145

PnL

+$22.63

Record

18%

4430-20777 (25207)

Both legs:

Invested

$893.42

Value

$142

PnL

+$101.58

Record

48%

1337-1437 (2774)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR

Invested

$578.29

Value

$90.92

PnL

+$1.55

Record

51%

290-283 (573)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$52.4

Value

$40.6

PnL

-$11.8

Record

49%

8980-9510 (18490)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$4.89

Value

$5.67

PnL

+$0.78

Record

44%

6591-8244 (14835)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.99

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$2.51

Record

75%

13065-4252 (17317)

luciebot<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.94

Value

$3.34

PnL

+$2.4

Record

31%

2678-6002 (8680)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.16

Value

$1.63

PnL

-$4.72

Record

77%

12520-3844 (16364)

JordanMooney<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.45

Value

$0.82

PnL

+$0.87

Record

36%

2034-3660 (5694)

plainfolderCTR<$100

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$0.06

Record

31%

3549-7933 (11482)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.