Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $249 held · ends Dec 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$249.22
-$0.29
99.8¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Late
173h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME merod | Noavg 99.8¢ | $100.8 | $100.7 | -$0.1 | 80% 48-12 (60) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $58.85 | $58.79 | -$0.06 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.91 | -$0.03 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.94 | -$0.04 | 37% 3224-5382 (8606) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $19.94 | -$0.02 | 31% 2735-6214 (8949) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.94 | -$0.04 | — 2-14 (16) |
Invested
$100.8
Value
$100.7
PnL
-$0.1
Record
80%
48-12 (60)
Invested
$58.85
Value
$58.79
PnL
-$0.06
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.91
PnL
-$0.03
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.94
PnL
-$0.04
Record
37%
3224-5382 (8606)
Invested
$19.96
Value
$19.94
PnL
-$0.02
Record
31%
2735-6214 (8949)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.94
PnL
-$0.04
Record
—
2-14 (16)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.