Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 6.2¢ · $135 held · ends Dec 8

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Tue, Dec 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$135.1

Combined PnL

-$10.63

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$116.3

Total Shares124

Combined PnL+$11.94

Yes4 traders

Total Value$18.8

Total Shares308

Combined PnL-$22.57

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

329h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 74¢	$51.14	$54.4	+$3.25	53% 7951-7061 (15012)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$34.65	$39.37	+$4.73	42% 5384-7432 (12816)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 71¢	$17.04	$22.54	+$3.96	43% 2144-2793 (4937)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.8¢	$25.64	$13.24	-$12.4	45% 2406-2980 (5386)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$9.51	$2.19	-$7.32	27% 6708-18534 (25242)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$41.93	$1.95	-$1.69	16% 266-1363 (1629)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$2.57	$1.41	-$1.16	56% 171-134 (305)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$51.14

Value

$54.4

PnL

+$3.25

Record

53%

7951-7061 (15012)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$34.65

Value

$39.37

PnL

+$4.73

Record

42%

5384-7432 (12816)

123987456<$100

Invested

$17.04

Value

$22.54

PnL

+$3.96

Record

43%

2144-2793 (4937)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.64

Value

$13.24

PnL

-$12.4

Record

45%

2406-2980 (5386)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.51

Value

$2.19

PnL

-$7.32

Record

27%

6708-18534 (25242)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.93

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$1.69

Record

16%

266-1363 (1629)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.57

Value

$1.41

PnL

-$1.16

Record

56%

171-134 (305)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

329h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.5%

6.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1227.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

1327.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.