Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the December 2026 meeting?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Dec 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.38

Combined PnL

-$151.78

Smart Money Entry

20¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$0.38

Total Shares761

Combined PnL-$151.78

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$60.2	$0.15	-$60.05	25% 45-134 (179)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$27.97	$0.07	-$27.9	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$26.84	$0.07	-$26.77	37% 1515-2566 (4081)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$7.9	$0.02	-$7.88	29% 3158-7813 (10971)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$6	$0.02	-$5.99	28% 1014-2623 (3637)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$6	$0.02	-$5.99	29% 1096-2660 (3756)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$6	$0.02	-$5.99	29% 232-564 (796)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$5.4	$0.01	-$5.39	31% 146-327 (473)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$4.86	$0.01	-$4.85	36% 3727-6719 (10446)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$0.99	$0	-$0.98	42% 2627-3655 (6282)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.2

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$60.05

Record

25%

45-134 (179)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.97

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$27.9

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.84

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$26.77

Record

37%

1515-2566 (4081)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.9

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$7.88

Record

29%

3158-7813 (10971)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$5.99

Record

28%

1014-2623 (3637)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$5.99

Record

29%

1096-2660 (3756)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$5.99

Record

29%

232-564 (796)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.4

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$5.39

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.86

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.85

Record

36%

3727-6719 (10446)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.99

Value

PnL

-$0.98

Record

42%

2627-3655 (6282)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.