Republican Senate odds hit 50% by October 31?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$3.2K
$414.76
85.9¢ → 98.9¢
+15% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
271h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | Noavg 88¢ | $2.6K | $2.9K | +$326.76 | 66% 725-373 (1098) |
 RememberAmalek | Noavg 63.2¢ | $177.06 | $276.75 | +$100.25 | 56% 954-753 (1707) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $15 | $6.25 | -$9.75 | 57% 15135-11571 (26706) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $2.56 | $1.6 | -$1.21 | 48% 2024-2230 (4254) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.5¢ | $1.5 | $0.25 | -$1.29 | 55% 302-251 (553) |
Invested
$2,626.02
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$326.76
Record
66%
725-373 (1098)
RememberAmalekInvested
$177.06
Value
$276.75
PnL
+$100.25
Record
56%
954-753 (1707)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$15
Value
$6.25
PnL
-$9.75
Record
57%
15135-11571 (26706)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$2.56
Value
$1.6
PnL
-$1.21
Record
48%
2024-2230 (4254)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$0.25
PnL
-$1.29
Record
55%
302-251 (553)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.