Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold M80, while the market favors Virtus.pro (98%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs M80 (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major Osaka Phase 3 - Playoffs

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold M80 (45%) · M80 at 2.5¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13

Virtus.pro98¢M802¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

M80

Consensus Traders

M80 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$557.38

Smart Money Entry

40.7¢ → 2.5¢

-94% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidM80 at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

M80

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Virtus.pro 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Virtus.pro98%

M803%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

M805 traders

Total Value$594.83

Total Shares3,043

Combined PnL-$645.06

Virtus.pro6 traders

Total Value$321.63

Total Shares387

Combined PnL+$87.69

M80 — 45%Virtus.pro — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on M80. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Virtus.pro) and the top 1000 (9 on M80) disagree here.

ctrVirtus.pro 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedVirtus.pro 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000M80 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	M80avg 50¢	$525	$509.25	-$15.75	54% 545-473 (1018)
└ Virtus.pro leg	Virtus.proavg 50¢	$262.5	$404.25	+$141.75
└ M80 leg	M80avg 50¢	$262.5	$105	-$157.5
itwasawholethingCTR	M80avg 42¢	$951.95	$453.31	-$498.64	— 8-8 (16)
VeryLucky888	Virtus.proavg 54.2¢	$201.53	$240	+$78.14	52% 881-800 (1681)
GA GaditimaCTR	M80avg 43.1¢	$217.65	$95.09	-$109.67	46% 178-208 (386)
LR lryyy<$100	Virtus.proavg 72.5¢	$35.23	$36.47	+$1.24	44% 496-624 (1120)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	M80avg 30.7¢	$68.77	$31.34	-$37.43	53% 6404-5641 (12045)
BI biying99999<$100	Virtus.proavg 55¢	$16.5	$24	+$7.5	31% 78-173 (251)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Virtus.proavg 78.3¢	$11.75	$12	+$0.25	34% 362-700 (1062)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	M80avg 11.6¢	$8.02	$9.66	+$1.64	32% 256-556 (812)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	M80avg 45.4¢	$8.57	$5.43	-$0.97	38% 512-824 (1336)
SU suntori<$100	Virtus.proavg 89¢	$4.76	$5.16	+$0.4	46% 1805-2097 (3902)
SE sentrio<$100	Virtus.proavg 77¢	$3.85	$4	+$0.15	42% 719-993 (1712)

NotJumpARB<$100

M80

Invested

$525

Value

$509.25

PnL

-$15.75

Record

54%

545-473 (1018)

Both legs:

Virtus.pro$262.550¢+$141.75

M80$262.550¢-$157.5

itwasawholethingCTR

M80

Invested

$951.95

Value

$453.31

PnL

-$498.64

Record

—

8-8 (16)

VeryLucky888

Virtus.pro

Invested

$201.53

Value

$240

PnL

+$78.14

Record

52%

881-800 (1681)

GaditimaCTR

M80

Invested

$217.65

Value

$95.09

PnL

-$109.67

Record

46%

178-208 (386)

lryyy<$100

Virtus.pro

Invested

$35.23

Value

$36.47

PnL

+$1.24

Record

44%

496-624 (1120)

cigarettesCTR<$100

M80

Invested

$68.77

Value

$31.34

PnL

-$37.43

Record

53%

6404-5641 (12045)

biying99999<$100

Virtus.pro

Invested

$16.5

Value

$24

PnL

+$7.5

Record

31%

78-173 (251)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Virtus.pro

Invested

$11.75

Value

$12

PnL

+$0.25

Record

34%

362-700 (1062)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

M80

Invested

$8.02

Value

$9.66

PnL

+$1.64

Record

32%

256-556 (812)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

M80

Invested

$8.57

Value

$5.43

PnL

-$0.97

Record

38%

512-824 (1336)

suntori<$100

Virtus.pro

Invested

$4.76

Value

$5.16

PnL

+$0.4

Record

46%

1805-2097 (3902)

sentrio<$100

Virtus.pro

Invested

$3.85

Value

PnL

+$0.15

Record

42%

719-993 (1712)

Research grade

AvoidM80 at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

M80

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Virtus.pro 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on M80. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Virtus.pro) and the top 1000 (9 on M80) disagree here.

ctrVirtus.pro 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedVirtus.pro 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000M80 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that M80 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.7%

2.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2625.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

2725.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.