Rainbow Six Siege: Fluxo W7M vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major Osaka Phase 2 - Swiss Stage
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold 100 Thieves (67%) · 100 Thieves at 83¢ · $318 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
100 Thieves
6
100 Thieves 67%
$317.81
$93.02
52.4¢ → 83¢
+59% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Neutral100 Thieves at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on 100 Thieves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IC ic4cream | 100 Thievesavg 51¢ | $99.96 | $147 | +$47.04 | 0% 1-438 (439) |
 VeryLucky888 | 100 Thievesavg 50¢ | $185.57 | $125.43 | +$41.89 | 47% 171-192 (363) |
 dips.<$100 | 100 Thievesavg 82.5¢ | $19.87 | $20.6 | +$0.73 | 41% 159-232 (391) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | 100 Thievesavg 50¢ | $12.5 | $18.75 | +$6.25 | 20% 113-461 (574) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Fluxo W7Mavg 19.2¢ | $2.83 | $3.69 | +$0.86 | 20% 67-271 (338) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Fluxo W7Mavg 52.1¢ | $6.1 | $2.34 | -$3.76 | 51% 62-60 (122) |
Invested
$99.96
Value
$147
PnL
+$47.04
Record
0%
1-438 (439)
VeryLucky888Invested
$185.57
Value
$125.43
PnL
+$41.89
Record
47%
171-192 (363)
dips.<$100Invested
$19.87
Value
$20.6
PnL
+$0.73
Record
41%
159-232 (391)
Invested
$12.5
Value
$18.75
PnL
+$6.25
Record
20%
113-461 (574)
Invested
$2.83
Value
$3.69
PnL
+$0.86
Record
20%
67-271 (338)
Invested
$6.1
Value
$2.34
PnL
-$3.76
Record
51%
62-60 (122)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.