Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Falcons Esport, while the market favors FaZe Clan (81%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs FaZe Clan (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major Osaka Phase 3 - Playoffs

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Falcons Esport (45%) · Falcons Esport at 20¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Falcons Esport20¢FaZe Clan80¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Falcons Esport

Consensus Traders

Falcons Esport 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$209.42

Smart Money Entry

47.9¢ → 19.5¢

-59% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidFalcons Esport at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons Esport

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors FaZe Clan 81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Falcons Esport20%

FaZe Clan81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FaZe Clan6 traders

Total Value$413.24

Total Shares497

Combined PnL+$172.15

Falcons Esport5 traders

Total Value$210.55

Total Shares1,203

Combined PnL-$381.57

FaZe Clan — 55%Falcons Esport — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Falcons Esport. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperFalcons Esport 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFaZe Clan 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedFaZe Clan 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000FaZe Clan 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Falcons Esportavg 50¢	$525	$619.5	+$94.5	53% 760-685 (1445)
└ FaZe Clan leg	FaZe Clanavg 50¢	$262.5	$435.75	+$173.25
└ Falcons Esport leg	Falcons Esportavg 50¢	$262.5	$183.75	-$78.75
VeryLucky888	FaZe Clanavg 47.7¢	$190.82	$191.22	+$84.53	53% 1232-1075 (2307)
itwasawholethingCTR	Falcons Esportavg 47¢	$358.55	$129.69	-$228.86	— 8-11 (19)
clazzy1	FaZe Clanavg 51.9¢	$67.69	$100.84	+$40.47	10% 5-44 (49)
JO johnsonboyy<$100	FaZe Clanavg 50.8¢	$54.06	$88.38	+$34.32	46% 11-13 (24)
GA GaditimaCTR	Falcons Esportavg 55.9¢	$167.56	$57	-$110.56	49% 257-270 (527)
DR dromedaryyCTR<$100	Falcons Esportavg 35¢	$42	$20.4	-$21.6	27% 43-114 (157)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	FaZe Clanavg 53¢	$9.94	$15.56	+$5.62	38% 509-839 (1348)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	FaZe Clanavg 47¢	$7.69	$13.09	+$5.4	44% 348-451 (799)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	FaZe Clanavg 51¢	$7.45	$4.15	+$1.8	40% 639-940 (1579)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Falcons Esportavg 49.2¢	$30.93	$1.76	-$19.4	45% 2420-2899 (5319)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Falcons Esportavg 28.5¢	$2.85	$1.7	-$1.15	44% 749-938 (1687)

NotJumpARB<$100

Falcons Esport

Invested

$525

Value

$619.5

PnL

+$94.5

Record

53%

760-685 (1445)

Both legs:

FaZe Clan$262.550¢+$173.25

Falcons Esport$262.550¢-$78.75

VeryLucky888

FaZe Clan

Invested

$190.82

Value

$191.22

PnL

+$84.53

Record

53%

1232-1075 (2307)

itwasawholethingCTR

Falcons Esport

Invested

$358.55

Value

$129.69

PnL

-$228.86

Record

—

8-11 (19)

clazzy1

FaZe Clan

Invested

$67.69

Value

$100.84

PnL

+$40.47

Record

10%

5-44 (49)

johnsonboyy<$100

FaZe Clan

Invested

$54.06

Value

$88.38

PnL

+$34.32

Record

46%

11-13 (24)

GaditimaCTR

Falcons Esport

Invested

$167.56

Value

$57

PnL

-$110.56

Record

49%

257-270 (527)

dromedaryyCTR<$100

Falcons Esport

Invested

$42

Value

$20.4

PnL

-$21.6

Record

27%

43-114 (157)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

FaZe Clan

Invested

$9.94

Value

$15.56

PnL

+$5.62

Record

38%

509-839 (1348)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

FaZe Clan

Invested

$7.69

Value

$13.09

PnL

+$5.4

Record

44%

348-451 (799)

ameisgoat11<$100

FaZe Clan

Invested

$7.45

Value

$4.15

PnL

+$1.8

Record

40%

639-940 (1579)

suntoriCTR<$100

Falcons Esport

Invested

$30.93

Value

$1.76

PnL

-$19.4

Record

45%

2420-2899 (5319)

lryyyCTR<$100

Falcons Esport

Invested

$2.85

Value

$1.7

PnL

-$1.15

Record

44%

749-938 (1687)

Research grade

AvoidFalcons Esport at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons Esport

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors FaZe Clan 81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Falcons Esport. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperFalcons Esport 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFaZe Clan 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedFaZe Clan 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000FaZe Clan 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Falcons Esport wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.3%

19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$369.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

469.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.