Rainbow Six Siege: DarkZero Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major Osaka Phase 3 - Playoffs

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold DarkZero Esports (67%) · DarkZero Esports at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

DarkZero Esports51¢Virtus.pro49¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

DarkZero Esports

Consensus Traders

DarkZero Esports 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$293.49

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 50.7¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDarkZero Esports at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

DarkZero Esports

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

DarkZero Esports51%

Virtus.pro49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

DarkZero Esports6 traders

Total Value$911.86

Total Shares1,429

Combined PnL+$306.95

Virtus.pro3 traders

Total Value$37.7

Total Shares103

Combined PnL-$13.46

DarkZero Esports — 67%Virtus.pro — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on DarkZero Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrVirtus.pro 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Virtus.pro 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Virtus.proavg 50¢	$525	$525	-$0	53% 750-669 (1419)
└ DarkZero Esports leg	DarkZero Esportsavg 50¢	$262.5	$420	+$157.5
└ Virtus.pro leg	Virtus.proavg 50¢	$262.5	$105	-$157.5
GA Gaditima	DarkZero Esportsavg 47.8¢	$402.62	$440.87	+$138.28	48% 246-262 (508)
alpheclabs2	DarkZero Esportsavg 48.9¢	$987.68	$229.11	+$118.48	45% 258-310 (568)
SL SlickRick123ARB<$100	DarkZero Esportsavg 43.6¢	$100.97	$102.91	+$33.22	34% 345-671 (1016)
└ DarkZero Esports leg	DarkZero Esportsavg 43.6¢	$54.06	$58.09	-$1.99
└ Virtus.pro leg	Virtus.proavg 20.1¢	$16.96	$44.82	+$35.21
CI cigarettes<$100	DarkZero Esportsavg 45.8¢	$59.82	$94.4	+$34.58	53% 6885-6020 (12905)
SU suntori<$100	DarkZero Esportsavg 59.1¢	$71.42	$68.25	-$3.17	46% 2333-2789 (5122)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0ARB<$100	DarkZero Esportsavg 50¢	$104.22	$67.66	+$9.96	44% 343-444 (787)
└ DarkZero Esports leg	DarkZero Esportsavg 50¢	$37.5	$44.81	+$5.59
└ Virtus.pro leg	Virtus.proavg 40.6¢	$23.03	$22.84	+$4.37
LR lryyy<$100	DarkZero Esportsavg 47¢	$38.85	$40.83	+$1.98	45% 706-873 (1579)
BI biying99999<$100	DarkZero Esportsavg 45¢	$21.6	$38.4	+$16.8	34% 95-187 (282)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Virtus.proavg 46.6¢	$21.5	$21.18	-$0.32	40% 609-910 (1519)
JO johnsonboyyCTR<$100	Virtus.proavg 47.5¢	$26.01	$10.94	-$15.07	48% 11-12 (23)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Virtus.proavg 15.4¢	$3.65	$5.58	+$1.93	37% 497-832 (1329)

NotJumpARB<$100

Virtus.pro

Invested

$525

Value

$525

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

750-669 (1419)

Both legs:

DarkZero Esports$262.550¢+$157.5

Virtus.pro$262.550¢-$157.5

Gaditima

DarkZero Esports

Invested

$402.62

Value

$440.87

PnL

+$138.28

Record

48%

246-262 (508)

alpheclabs2

DarkZero Esports

Invested

$987.68

Value

$229.11

PnL

+$118.48

Record

45%

258-310 (568)

SlickRick123ARB<$100

DarkZero Esports

Invested

$100.97

Value

$102.91

PnL

+$33.22

Record

34%

345-671 (1016)

Both legs:

DarkZero Esports$54.0643.6¢-$1.99

Virtus.pro$16.9620.1¢+$35.21

cigarettes<$100

DarkZero Esports

Invested

$59.82

Value

$94.4

PnL

+$34.58

Record

53%

6885-6020 (12905)

suntori<$100

DarkZero Esports

Invested

$71.42

Value

$68.25

PnL

-$3.17

Record

46%

2333-2789 (5122)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0ARB<$100

DarkZero Esports

Invested

$104.22

Value

$67.66

PnL

+$9.96

Record

44%

343-444 (787)

Both legs:

DarkZero Esports$37.550¢+$5.59

Virtus.pro$23.0340.6¢+$4.37

lryyy<$100

DarkZero Esports

Invested

$38.85

Value

$40.83

PnL

+$1.98

Record

45%

706-873 (1579)

biying99999<$100

DarkZero Esports

Invested

$21.6

Value

$38.4

PnL

+$16.8

Record

34%

95-187 (282)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Virtus.pro

Invested

$21.5

Value

$21.18

PnL

-$0.32

Record

40%

609-910 (1519)

johnsonboyyCTR<$100

Virtus.pro

Invested

$26.01

Value

$10.94

PnL

-$15.07

Record

48%

11-12 (23)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Virtus.pro

Invested

$3.65

Value

$5.58

PnL

+$1.93

Record

37%

497-832 (1329)

Research grade

NeutralDarkZero Esports at 51%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

DarkZero Esports

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on DarkZero Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrVirtus.pro 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Virtus.pro 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that DarkZero Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.9%

50.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$88.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

188.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.