Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold DarkZero Esports, while the market favors FaZe Clan (60%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Rainbow Six Siege: DarkZero Esports vs FaZe Clan (BO5) - BLAST R6 Major Osaka Phase 3 - Playoffs

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold DarkZero Esports (60%) · DarkZero Esports at 41¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

DarkZero Esports41¢FaZe Clan59¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

DarkZero Esports

Consensus Traders

DarkZero Esports 60%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$196.71

Smart Money Entry

30.3¢ → 40.5¢

+34% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDarkZero Esports at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

DarkZero Esports

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors FaZe Clan 60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

DarkZero Esports41%

FaZe Clan60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

DarkZero Esports6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares4,532

Combined PnL+$205.35

FaZe Clan4 traders

Total Value$299.32

Total Shares478

Combined PnL-$8.64

DarkZero Esports — 60%FaZe Clan — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on DarkZero Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDarkZero Esports 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000DarkZero Esports 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tankfest2027CTR	DarkZero Esportsavg 29¢	$831.07	$945.7	+$114.63	— 6-10 (16)
itwasawholethingCTR	DarkZero Esportsavg 33¢	$293.01	$328.53	+$35.52	40% 8-12 (20)
GA GaditimaCTR	DarkZero Esportsavg 32.5¢	$296.29	$282.71	+$53.65	49% 333-346 (679)
BI biying99999	FaZe Clanavg 64¢	$210.91	$207.73	-$3.17	38% 132-216 (348)
SU suntori<$100	FaZe Clanavg 66.4¢	$73.13	$67.21	-$5.92	46% 2978-3516 (6494)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	FaZe Clanavg 62¢	$17.38	$18.08	+$0.7	40% 652-976 (1628)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	DarkZero Esportsavg 25¢	$11.25	$11.93	+$0.68	45% 433-525 (958)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	DarkZero Esportsavg 24¢	$7.2	$7.95	+$0.75	37% 459-785 (1244)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	FaZe Clanavg 64.5¢	$26.48	$6.3	-$0.25	42% 763-1062 (1825)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	DarkZero Esportsavg 24¢	$1.2	$1.33	+$0.13	46% 884-1056 (1940)

tankfest2027CTR

DarkZero Esports

Invested

$831.07

Value

$945.7

PnL

+$114.63

Record

—

6-10 (16)

itwasawholethingCTR

DarkZero Esports

Invested

$293.01

Value

$328.53

PnL

+$35.52

Record

40%

8-12 (20)

GaditimaCTR

DarkZero Esports

Invested

$296.29

Value

$282.71

PnL

+$53.65

Record

49%

333-346 (679)

biying99999

FaZe Clan

Invested

$210.91

Value

$207.73

PnL

-$3.17

Record

38%

132-216 (348)

suntori<$100

FaZe Clan

Invested

$73.13

Value

$67.21

PnL

-$5.92

Record

46%

2978-3516 (6494)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

FaZe Clan

Invested

$17.38

Value

$18.08

PnL

+$0.7

Record

40%

652-976 (1628)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

DarkZero Esports

Invested

$11.25

Value

$11.93

PnL

+$0.68

Record

45%

433-525 (958)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

DarkZero Esports

Invested

$7.2

Value

$7.95

PnL

+$0.75

Record

37%

459-785 (1244)

ameisgoat11<$100

FaZe Clan

Invested

$26.48

Value

$6.3

PnL

-$0.25

Record

42%

763-1062 (1825)

lryyyCTR<$100

DarkZero Esports

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.33

PnL

+$0.13

Record

46%

884-1056 (1940)

Research grade

NeutralDarkZero Esports at 41%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

DarkZero Esports

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors FaZe Clan 60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on DarkZero Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDarkZero Esports 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000DarkZero Esports 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that DarkZero Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.