Al Sadd SC vs. Al-Shamal: O/U 5.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 73¢ · $643 held · ended Oct 30

Over27¢Under73¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

Total Value

$642.75

Combined PnL

-$15.93

Smart Money Entry

78.9¢ → 73¢

-7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over27%

Under73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$539.42

Total Shares601

Combined PnL+$36.89

Over4 traders

Total Value$103.33

Total Shares795

Combined PnL-$52.82

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 78.8¢	$488.94	$525.3	+$36.37	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 16.4¢	$80.64	$63.98	-$16.66	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Overavg 30.7¢	$54.69	$23.14	-$31.55	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 16.9¢	$16.71	$12.87	-$3.84	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
RO Rocko33<$100	Underavg 85¢	$7	$7.16	+$0.16	64% 1071-606 (1677)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 78¢	$6.24	$6.96	+$0.36	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 16¢	$4.11	$3.34	-$0.77	59% 9935-6911 (16846)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$488.94

Value

$525.3

PnL

+$36.37

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$80.64

Value

$63.98

PnL

-$16.66

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54.69

Value

$23.14

PnL

-$31.55

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.71

Value

$12.87

PnL

-$3.84

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

Rocko33<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$7.16

PnL

+$0.16

Record

64%

1071-606 (1677)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$6.24

Value

$6.96

PnL

+$0.36

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.11

Value

$3.34

PnL

-$0.77

Record

59%

9935-6911 (16846)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.