Al Sadd SC vs. Al-Shamal: O/U 2.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$811.61

Smart Money Entry

81.8¢ → 99.5¢

+22% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares5,861

Combined PnL+$812.97

Over4 traders

Total Value$502.6

Total Shares601

Combined PnL-$1.36

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SY SyrrokCTR	Underavg 1.1¢	$27.86	$617.16	+$589.3	61% 1799-1146 (2945)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 14.8¢	$181.07	$293.65	+$112.59	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Underavg 24¢	$271.92	$271.92	+$0	59% 30376-21082 (51458)
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 74.6¢	$235.55	$240.08	+$4.53	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 14.2¢	$97.28	$164.03	+$66.75	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
HRTrading	Overavg 99.9¢	$119.52	$119.58	+$0.06	52% 4004-3650 (7654)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 83.1¢	$127.9	$116.99	-$10.91	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
US user921123CTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$14.86	$59.45	+$44.59	59% 951-655 (1606)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 73¢	$20.99	$25.95	+$4.96	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 23.7¢	$9.29	$0.31	-$0.25	58% 41507-30134 (71641)

SyrrokCTR

Under

Invested

$27.86

Value

$617.16

PnL

+$589.3

Record

61%

1799-1146 (2945)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$181.07

Value

$293.65

PnL

+$112.59

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Under

Invested

$271.92

Value

$271.92

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

30376-21082 (51458)

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$235.55

Value

$240.08

PnL

+$4.53

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$97.28

Value

$164.03

PnL

+$66.75

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

HRTrading

Over

Invested

$119.52

Value

$119.58

PnL

+$0.06

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$127.9

Value

$116.99

PnL

-$10.91

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

user921123CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.86

Value

$59.45

PnL

+$44.59

Record

59%

951-655 (1606)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$20.99

Value

$25.95

PnL

+$4.96

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.29

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$0.25

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.