Spread: Al Sadd SC (-3.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Al-Shamal (57%) · Al-Shamal at 92¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Al-Shamal
7
Al-Shamal 57%
$2.9K
-$141.43
87.9¢ → 92¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralAl-Shamal at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Al-Shamalavg 88¢ | $2.2K | $2.0K | -$174.51 | 50% 24855-24561 (49416) |
FO foooool | Al-Shamalavg 88.6¢ | $500 | $502.27 | +$2.27 | 50% 10770-10596 (21366) |
UP UpTheBlues | Al-Shamalavg 84.6¢ | $159.42 | $172.48 | +$13.06 | 59% 45379-31733 (77112) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Al Sadd SCavg 11.4¢ | $71.41 | $114.49 | +$43.08 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Al Sadd SCavg 15¢ | $61.38 | $36.18 | -$25.2 | 38% 3197-5208 (8405) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Al-Shamalavg 85¢ | $13.16 | $13.39 | +$0.23 | 52% 3999-3641 (7640) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Al Sadd SCavg 21¢ | $3.84 | $3.47 | -$0.37 | 55% 8241-6653 (14894) |
Invested
$2,200.96
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$174.51
Record
50%
24855-24561 (49416)
Invested
$500
Value
$502.27
PnL
+$2.27
Record
50%
10770-10596 (21366)
Invested
$159.42
Value
$172.48
PnL
+$13.06
Record
59%
45379-31733 (77112)
Invested
$71.41
Value
$114.49
PnL
+$43.08
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
Invested
$61.38
Value
$36.18
PnL
-$25.2
Record
38%
3197-5208 (8405)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$13.16
Value
$13.39
PnL
+$0.23
Record
52%
3999-3641 (7640)
Invested
$3.84
Value
$3.47
PnL
-$0.37
Record
55%
8241-6653 (14894)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.