Spread: Al Sadd SC (-2.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Al-Shamal (50%) · Al-Shamal at 74¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30

Al Sadd SC26¢Al-Shamal74¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Al-Shamal

Consensus Traders

Al-Shamal 50%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$347.7

Smart Money Entry

76.4¢ → 74¢

-3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralAl-Shamal at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Al-Shamal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Al Sadd SC26%

Al-Shamal74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Al-Shamal2 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,847

Combined PnL-$376.4

Al Sadd SC2 traders

Total Value$95.19

Total Shares278

Combined PnL+$28.69

Al-Shamal — 50%Al Sadd SC — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Al-Shamalavg 76.2¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$377.73	50% 24855-24561 (49416)
FO foooool	Al-Shamalavg 77.2¢	$345.05	$346.38	+$1.33	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Al Sadd SCavg 23.9¢	$59.83	$81.45	+$21.62	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Al Sadd SCavg 24¢	$6.66	$13.74	+$7.08	52% 3999-3641 (7640)

GoalLineGhost

Al-Shamal

Invested

$1,829.99

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$377.73

Record

50%

24855-24561 (49416)

foooool

Al-Shamal

Invested

$345.05

Value

$346.38

PnL

+$1.33

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Al Sadd SC

Invested

$59.83

Value

$81.45

PnL

+$21.62

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Al Sadd SC

Invested

$6.66

Value

$13.74

PnL

+$7.08

Record

52%

3999-3641 (7640)

Research grade

NeutralAl-Shamal at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Al-Shamal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Al-Shamal wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.