Will Al-Shamal win on 2026-10-30?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 99¢ · $583 held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
1 arb excluded
$582.81
$63.98
80.4¢ → 99.3¢
+23% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO foooool | Noavg 79.7¢ | $338.52 | $399.4 | +$60.88 | 50% 10770-10596 (21366) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Yesavg 19.7¢ | $188.83 | $125.56 | -$63.27 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 89.5¢ | $91.29 | $95.9 | +$4.61 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 19.7¢ | $97.54 | $29.66 | -$67.88 | |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $13.39 | $14.15 | +$0.75 | 59% 9935-6911 (16846) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $11.81 | $11.89 | +$0.08 | 38% 3209-5230 (8439) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $3.12 | $9.6 | +$6.48 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 79.5¢ | $7.95 | $9.4 | +$1.1 | 54% 6194-5243 (11437) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.3¢ | $13.06 | $7.59 | -$5.47 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 91.1¢ | $5.06 | $5.22 | +$0.16 | 52% 4004-3650 (7654) |
Invested
$338.52
Value
$399.4
PnL
+$60.88
Record
50%
10770-10596 (21366)
Invested
$188.83
Value
$125.56
PnL
-$63.27
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
Both legs:
poshposh<$100Invested
$13.39
Value
$14.15
PnL
+$0.75
Record
59%
9935-6911 (16846)
Invested
$11.81
Value
$11.89
PnL
+$0.08
Record
38%
3209-5230 (8439)
Invested
$3.12
Value
$9.6
PnL
+$6.48
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
Invested
$7.95
Value
$9.4
PnL
+$1.1
Record
54%
6194-5243 (11437)
Invested
$13.06
Value
$7.59
PnL
-$5.47
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.06
Value
$5.22
PnL
+$0.16
Record
52%
4004-3650 (7654)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.