Will Al Sadd SC win on 2026-10-30?

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 69¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 30

Yes69¢No31¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$16.54

Smart Money Entry

80.9¢ → 68.5¢

-15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes69%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,407

Combined PnL-$187.21

No8 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,529

Combined PnL+$170.68

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 79.3¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$169.11	50% 24855-24561 (49416)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 29.7¢	$844.24	$1.0K	+$163.79	59% 45379-31733 (77112)
RO Rocky31	Yesavg 92.1¢	$340.67	$330.91	-$9.76	73% 1546-559 (2105)
FO foooool	Yesavg 77.4¢	$326.26	$318.32	-$7.95	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$99.02	$102.7	+$3.68	58% 28416-20976 (49392)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 61¢	$70.14	$78.76	+$8.62
└ No leg	Noavg 38¢	$28.88	$23.94	-$4.94
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$76	$74	-$2	54% 4856-4082 (8938)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 15.8¢	$42.51	$71.55	+$29.04	38% 3197-5208 (8405)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$77.37	$39.11	-$21.21	58% 41497-30120 (71617)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 24.9¢	$22.83	$26.49	+$3.66	52% 3999-3641 (7640)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$15.52	$15.23	-$0.29	49% 18987-19398 (38385)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 76.5¢	$7.65	$7.55	-$0.1	54% 6194-5243 (11437)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 15.2¢	$7.84	$5.42	-$2.42	59% 9929-6898 (16827)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 23.3¢	$1.21	$1.25	+$0.04	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$1.05	$0.83	-$0.22	59% 30372-21077 (51449)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$1,674.01

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$169.11

Record

50%

24855-24561 (49416)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$844.24

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$163.79

Record

59%

45379-31733 (77112)

Rocky31

Yes

Invested

$340.67

Value

$330.91

PnL

-$9.76

Record

73%

1546-559 (2105)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$326.26

Value

$318.32

PnL

-$7.95

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.02

Value

$102.7

PnL

+$3.68

Record

58%

28416-20976 (49392)

Both legs:

Yes$70.1461¢+$8.62

No$28.8838¢-$4.94

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100

Invested

$76

Value

$74

PnL

-$2

Record

54%

4856-4082 (8938)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$42.51

Value

$71.55

PnL

+$29.04

Record

38%

3197-5208 (8405)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$77.37

Value

$39.11

PnL

-$21.21

Record

58%

41497-30120 (71617)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$22.83

Value

$26.49

PnL

+$3.66

Record

52%

3999-3641 (7640)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.52

Value

$15.23

PnL

-$0.29

Record

49%

18987-19398 (38385)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.65

Value

$7.55

PnL

-$0.1

Record

54%

6194-5243 (11437)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$7.84

Value

$5.42

PnL

-$2.42

Record

59%

9929-6898 (16827)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$1.21

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.83

PnL

-$0.22

Record

59%

30372-21077 (51449)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.