Al Sadd SC vs. Al-Shamal: Both Teams to Score

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 100¢ · $236 held · ended Oct 30

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$236.3

Combined PnL

$31.62

Smart Money Entry

70.1¢ → 99.6¢

+42% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$231.28

Total Shares237

Combined PnL+$64.46

No2 traders

Total Value$5.01

Total Shares67

Combined PnL-$32.84

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO foooool	Yesavg 69.1¢	$124.78	$179.68	+$54.91	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
RO Rocko33<$100	Yesavg 88¢	$28.27	$31.98	+$3.71	64% 1071-606 (1677)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 46.5¢	$10.96	$16.68	+$5.73	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 30.5¢	$2.29	$4.75	+$2.46	52% 4004-3650 (7654)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$2.82	$2.94	+$0.12	93% 2988-241 (3229)
RO Rocky31CTR<$100	Noavg 63.3¢	$37.36	$0.27	-$35.29	73% 1546-559 (2105)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$124.78

Value

$179.68

PnL

+$54.91

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

Rocko33<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.27

Value

$31.98

PnL

+$3.71

Record

64%

1071-606 (1677)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.96

Value

$16.68

PnL

+$5.73

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$2.29

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$2.46

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

thatsabing0<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.82

Value

$2.94

PnL

+$0.12

Record

93%

2988-241 (3229)

Rocky31CTR<$100

Invested

$37.36

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$35.29

Record

73%

1546-559 (2105)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.