Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Lusail SC win on 2026-10-31?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 0.5¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 86%
$1.5K
$236.25
64.1¢ → 0.5¢
-99% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 75¢ | $806.25 | $849.25 | +$43 | 50% 25104-24842 (49946) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 48.6¢ | $286.57 | $445.85 | +$159.27 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Noavg 59.7¢ | $94.77 | $126.51 | +$31.74 | 49% 7982-8322 (16304) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $82.11 | $88.55 | +$6.44 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 54¢ | $155.25 | $21.45 | -$4.54 | 58% 41929-30449 (72378) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 69.3¢ | $4.85 | $5.53 | +$0.68 | 53% 4646-4187 (8833) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 23.3¢ | $3.5 | $3.15 | -$0.35 | 54% 6286-5324 (11610) |
Invested
$806.25
Value
$849.25
PnL
+$43
Record
50%
25104-24842 (49946)
Invested
$286.57
Value
$445.85
PnL
+$159.27
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
Invested
$94.77
Value
$126.51
PnL
+$31.74
Record
49%
7982-8322 (16304)
Invested
$82.11
Value
$88.55
PnL
+$6.44
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$155.25
Value
$21.45
PnL
-$4.54
Record
58%
41929-30449 (72378)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$4.85
Value
$5.53
PnL
+$0.68
Record
53%
4646-4187 (8833)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.15
PnL
-$0.35
Record
54%
6286-5324 (11610)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.