Will Al-Sailiya SC win on 2026-10-31?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 75¢ · $710 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$709.66
-$53.15
87.2¢ → 75¢
-14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 87.6¢ | $659.52 | $561.03 | -$98.49 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 27¢ | $54 | $104 | +$50 | 58% 41929-30449 (72378) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $44.31 | $39.63 | -$4.68 | 53% 4646-4187 (8833) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $4.98 | $5 | +$0.03 | 54% 6286-5324 (11610) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.