Will Puka Nacua have 3.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 82¢ · $580 held · ends Jan 27, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$579.77
-$176.76
Research grade
NeutralYes at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 extractive-manateeCTR | No | $482.73 | $482.73 | -$187.62 | 33% 539-1081 (1620) |
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c<$100 | Yesavg 80¢ | $80 | $81.5 | +$7.5 | 67% 630-315 (945) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Yesavg 76.5¢ | $65.75 | $11.98 | +$1.5 | 41% 4499-6366 (10865) |
HI hithitfar<$100 | Yes | $3.56 | $3.56 | +$1.86 | 58% 732-527 (1259) |
extractive-manateeCTRInvested
$482.73
Value
$482.73
PnL
-$187.62
Record
33%
539-1081 (1620)
Invested
$80
Value
$81.5
PnL
+$7.5
Record
67%
630-315 (945)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$65.75
Value
$11.98
PnL
+$1.5
Record
41%
4499-6366 (10865)
Invested
$3.56
Value
$3.56
PnL
+$1.86
Record
58%
732-527 (1259)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.