Will Sporting CP win on 2026-11-07?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 86¢ · $988 held · ends Nov 7

Yes86¢No14¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$987.71

Combined PnL

$4.46

Smart Money Entry

84.1¢ → 85.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes86%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$787.54

Total Shares931

Combined PnL+$4.49

No3 traders

Total Value$19.62

Total Shares131

Combined PnL-$0.03

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO notgoodluck	Yesavg 84¢	$590.86	$594.38	+$3.52	62% 239-147 (386)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Noavg 16.7¢	$196.06	$180.55	-$15.43	50% 21530-21816 (43346)
└ No leg	Noavg 16.7¢	$156.19	$140.52	-$15.66
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 84.7¢	$39.88	$40.03	+$0.24
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$84.93	$85.94	+$1.01	64% 2035-1134 (3169)
GC GC-P<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$52.7	$53.32	+$0.31	64% 10173-5762 (15935)
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 85¢	$39.86	$33.68	-$0.2	49% 1807-1885 (3692)
LI Limousin<$100	Yesavg 85.6¢	$20.37	$20.22	-$0.15	50% 1821-1809 (3630)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$8.93	$9.24	+$0.31	48% 62365-67229 (129594)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Noavg 16.7¢	$7.66	$6.89	-$0.23	42% 2467-3376 (5843)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 15.5¢	$3.6	$3.49	-$0.11	50% 26374-25995 (52369)

notgoodluck

Yes

Invested

$590.86

Value

$594.38

PnL

+$3.52

Record

62%

239-147 (386)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Invested

$196.06

Value

$180.55

PnL

-$15.43

Record

50%

21530-21816 (43346)

Both legs:

No$156.1916.7¢-$15.66

Yes$39.8884.7¢+$0.24

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.93

Value

$85.94

PnL

+$1.01

Record

64%

2035-1134 (3169)

GC-P<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.7

Value

$53.32

PnL

+$0.31

Record

64%

10173-5762 (15935)

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.86

Value

$33.68

PnL

-$0.2

Record

49%

1807-1885 (3692)

Limousin<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.37

Value

$20.22

PnL

-$0.15

Record

50%

1821-1809 (3630)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$8.93

Value

$9.24

PnL

+$0.31

Record

48%

62365-67229 (129594)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Invested

$7.66

Value

$6.89

PnL

-$0.23

Record

42%

2467-3376 (5843)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.49

PnL

-$0.11

Record

50%

26374-25995 (52369)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.