Will SC Braga win on 2026-11-01?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 56¢ · $818 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$818.48
$15.91
52.9¢ → 55.5¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forrestgumper | Yesavg 51.8¢ | $457.19 | $485.81 | +$15.38 | 48% 621-680 (1301) |
MA marketmesh | Yesavg 55¢ | $280.27 | $282.82 | +$2.55 | 58% 96-69 (165) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $39.98 | $38.24 | -$1.74 | 53% 15955-14130 (30085) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $8.23 | $7.97 | -$0.26 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $2.23 | -$0.03 | 48% 2393-2622 (5015) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $1.4 | $1.41 | +$0.02 | 58% 41916-30432 (72348) |
Invested
$457.19
Value
$485.81
PnL
+$15.38
Record
48%
621-680 (1301)
Invested
$280.27
Value
$282.82
PnL
+$2.55
Record
58%
96-69 (165)
Invested
$39.98
Value
$38.24
PnL
-$1.74
Record
53%
15955-14130 (30085)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8.23
Value
$7.97
PnL
-$0.26
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$2.23
PnL
-$0.03
Record
48%
2393-2622 (5015)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$1.4
Value
$1.41
PnL
+$0.02
Record
58%
41916-30432 (72348)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.