Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (84%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-11-01?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 17¢ · $123 held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$122.57
-$6.43
Research grade
AvoidYes at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $45.57 | $46.4 | +$0.83 | 53% 16110-14274 (30384) |
0X 0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.9¢ | $52.81 | $46.19 | -$6.62 | 56% 157-123 (280) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $14.78 | $14.78 | -$0.43 | 55% 1777-1466 (3243) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 82.2¢ | $14.37 | $14.34 | -$0.13 | 53% 5577-5013 (10590) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $0.9 | $0.85 | -$0.08 | 52% 7485-6781 (14266) |
Invested
$45.57
Value
$46.4
PnL
+$0.83
Record
53%
16110-14274 (30384)
Invested
$52.81
Value
$46.19
PnL
-$6.62
Record
56%
157-123 (280)
Invested
$14.78
Value
$14.78
PnL
-$0.43
Record
55%
1777-1466 (3243)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$14.37
Value
$14.34
PnL
-$0.13
Record
53%
5577-5013 (10590)
Invested
$0.9
Value
$0.85
PnL
-$0.08
Record
52%
7485-6781 (14266)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
16.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.